Hey, it’s great to talk to you again this week.
It's nice to be able to write again. As it's been a hectic couple of months. My wife and I had taken a trip to the Holy Land and then Christmas and the winter got in the way. I just wrote my first sub stack again 3 weeks ago. Then there was the death of a close friend and we traveled to help out. I'm finally just getting my feet under me again and am eager to put some of my thoughts down.
Unfortunately War has been at the top of my mind. The war in Ukraine is also high on many people's agendas and thoughts. But still many of us don't even have a clue of defense and offensive struggles in the region. We hear so many different stories when it comes to actually what's happening on the ground.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that both sides are filling our social media platforms with their propaganda. Yes don't fool yourself, Europe and Ukraine are feeding us a line of information that they want us to hear. From the west’s side, hundreds if not thousands of Russians are killed each and every day of this war. We see videos of tanks being destroyed, people being killed on the ground, and of course we only hear of civilians being killed by the Russians. Most might think to this point that maybe 50 or 100 Ukrainians have been killed because the Russians are so inept at fighting a war.
On the flip side the Russians are underscoring their losses and only showing us visions of air superiority, and tactical advantages. They to tell their people that they are winning the war, a war against Nazis in Ukraine. Both sides exaggerate their wins and diminish their losses. It is safe to say that it ends up somewhere in the middle.
The true reality is that Russia is doing much better than people are being led to believe. As I've told you in the past, in early winter Russia had reinforced and set up its lines in what was a tactical retreat to better position itself for a main attack which is coming soon. Are they winning the war? That might be the big question. Because looking at it militarily Russia appears to be setting itself up for a main thrust to take over the country. Or at least most of it.
The Ukrainians are trying to hold a line that is 800 kilometers long. A tough task for any country. That line is also thin in many places, and supplies are not getting to the front lines like people seem to think it is. Yes Ammunition, shells, and support has been coming in from the United States and Europe. But the Russians have been striking at supply lines, power industries, and Communications. All of this is in preparation for the main battle to come. If they had made these strikes in the first few days of the war it would have been a different type of outcome. But they underestimated the resolve of the Ukrainians, and they also were trying to save the infrastructure in the country so that they did not have to rebuild it. That no longer is a necessity.
A Russian strike appears to be close at hand, striking before full supplies and reinforcements can be ushered into the region by the Ukrainians for defense purposes. Our media says more tanks will be coming into the region. Leopards from Poland, Canada, and others which will take at least 2 to 4 months to get there. Then some quick training to use them. The United States has offered 31 Abrams tanks which may take 9 to 12 months even to arrive. It appears these M1s may never actually be used until next year. People do not realize the upkeep of all of these machines, the personnel that are needed to keep these tanks running, and the training just to drive or shoot them. What you end up with is basically a fat pig bogged down in the mud with many more people to keep it running than to actually use it.
Putin's military men and himself realize that they need to strike before even more help arrives. The wishy-washy ideas of the European Union and the US have made it easier for the Russians to strike earlier. It now becomes a necessity for them. Many believe they are actually winning this war based on the tactics they are using and the propaganda being force fed to all of us. Loss of life to them is more acceptable because of their larger numbers. Pundits who continue to tell you that Russia won't do this, or won't do that because of some feeling of regret by Putin are gaslighting you and all of us. War is not about feelings, it's about winning at any cost if needed. Putin is ready to do that.
Back to these war saving tanks. Many factors have led to the fact that these tanks are easy to destroy now. We hear of the US's Javelin missiles and tank destroyers. Russia has the equivalent and most professionals think it's even better. We all have seen tanks being taken out by various means in this conflict. Tanks have now become sitting ducks in battle. Yes, they are a large powerful platform to use in combat, but in the 21st century they have become easy targets on any Battlefield. 31 Abrams tanks from the US and Leopard tanks from the E.U. will do little if anything to help. Drones and Russian anti-tank missiles will take out many early in an attack.
Once the main attack starts, and Putin pushes further into Ukraine, the European Union and the U.S. will slowly realize that this is an all-in or all-out endeavor. All in: Officially means that it becomes World War III. Pulling in many more countries around the world and becoming a global conflict. All out: Will cut the risks of more loss of life but give up Ukraine to the Russians. It will be an easy choice for them to finally pull out, tuck their tails between their legs and head home. They will Proclaim that they did their best, but did not want to risk a World War. Putin is banking on that. I unfortunately believe he is correct.
On the battlefield the time is short to strike while Ukraine is weaker. Top military brass in Moscow will be pushing for an offensive soon. This before tanks and potentially air power moves into the region if the West decides to go all in. Stories now are appearing to hint via satellite that a troop build up is beginning near the Donbas. Russian soldiers are probing the lines of the Ukraine's daily. We are also told that many rockets are being shot down but many are getting through. We all have to wonder if those numbers are correct or even close with the amount of damage seen and disinformation coming out from both sides.
One last thought that seems to not even be Crossing many people's minds. That would be China. When Russia starts its offensive and we focus on what they are doing, China may strike Taiwan and try to take it. They know militarily we will be at a crossroads and unable to take care of two problems at one time. Projecting power in two places, essentially fighting two Wars around the globe is not possible.
So look for Putin and his military to strike soon. Whether or not it is occurring, weakness has been shown, weakness is built into the cards, weakness strengthens the powerful. History will show eventually that a perceived global unity, is just another man behind the curtain pulling the strings. Strings of manipulation that will break under the Pressure and Power of a mighty hand who is ready to use it. Now the question is who is that power, us or them.
So this war is not going like many are perceiving it. It could end in many different ways. If you are worried, then take care of yourself. Make sure you are financially stable. Help your family then your friends. Find a loving savior in Jesus to guide you through the struggles ahead.
This is uninformed. Utterly clueless as to what is actually happening.
You believe Russia is the good actor here?
You'd better consider whether you're actually connected to reality