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This is Part two of the potential outcomes of the war as I see it…….
So far we covered the lower chance outcomes of this war. Nuclear has ticked up to 10% but still seems to be an outlier more than a real scare fest. Secondly the full pull out and return to normal is decreasing almost hourly and I have it down to 12% and may be in single digits by the end of the weekend if not by the time you end reading.
Number 3 or in this case the second best chance of an outcome is the one that becomes just a bloody all out conventional war with dead bodies numbering in the hundreds of thousands and civilian casualties piling up in the streets. Pictures that the world has not seen the likes of since the last world war. A country pummeled into submission before finally succumbing to the Russian onslaught. Taking several more weeks to 2 months to the finish and ending with Russia in control and more dead than we wish to count. I put this at about 25% currently and slowly dropping percentage wise as time goes by. The reality on the ground says yes Ukraine can hold out for awhile but will be overrun eventually by a much stronger, larger force. This outlook is dropping as some media noise is making Putin look bad and may lead him to larger scale weapons and an attempt to end this sooner rather than later. The slow slog of war Russia is famous for, does not fit with the media atmosphere we have now. This is not 1975 when he could hide things from the public. Pictures get out and the world protests. These in tandom may push him to move faster to end it all faster. But he is not concerned about his losses, just the outcome of the war itself. So he could settle in and allow the drain of power, gas, goods, and essentials to strangle them out while killing anything that moves.
The large scale convoys showing up on satellite lean towards a war that will not stop and could easily drag on for sometime. I do expect no matter the path look for no type of stoppage anytime soon. It will be very hard for the Ukrainians to hang on the longer this drags out. If it stays generally conventional this will lead to a lot of dead people on both sides but an outcome that still ends in a Russian victory. If you could call it victory with 6 figure death tolls possible and a country which may need to be rebuilt.
That leads me into the outcome I see as being the one with the highest potential.
So far we have covered the 3 lowest potential outcomes to this war as I see it. I tried to put information in to basic places that we might normally see them. The Nuclear option seems to much for anyone to stomach, and the entire pullout of troops at this time seems fantastical. Thus they are on the lower chance side. If we use the Keep It Simple Stupid method and in this case I believe that works best we can see how those cases are minimal but not likely. That leads us to the greatest potential which I call the Hammer of Thor. I know not a genius name but worthy of a strong attack which I see is that of a Russian hard push with the Father Of All Bombs (Thermoclastic) reigning from the skies. A doubling down and speed up of the outcome and clearing the way for further hard core attacks. Remaining at all times below and this is important staying below the Nuclear threshold. This outlook not only quickens the outcome but limits the Russian losses. Unloading FOABs on Ukraine will leave wide swaths of empty space but will stop any pushback that the Kremlin does not want. Put this potential at 50% and you see how it may pan out. Generally a lot of Ukrainians dead and Russia still winning. I am praying for the least of these which would be an about face and return to Russia, yet that seems unlikely at this point. It would keep the most people alive and freedom for Ukrainians, but seems to fade every moment this all continues.
The bad news is no matter the way this swings, many people are going to be, and or already are hurt or dead.
Now I know what you are saying, thats only 97%. The other 3 percent I reserve for those odd ball quirky things that could change any scenario. Such as a coup in Moscow with Generals taking control of the country and stopping the forward push. How about China jumping into the fray and Europe backing down to not enrage them. What if Russia declared war on the U.S. and sent missiles, or allowed little rocket man to send missiles into Japan. Starting WW3. What if we set up a no fly zone. Which is basically war against Russia. Not likely. Of these 3% chances, China attacking Taiwan seems to be the most likely but slim to nearly no chance at this point. The Chinese government is watching every move and will make a move when they are ready which will probably come in the next 6 months with a focus on April when the seas are the best for an invasion. They will adjust to not make the same mistakes the Russians are. That means the Chinesse Hammer will be the initial start to that conflict. Not waiting to see how the response comes.
I have been talking about exactly what is happening for a year now. It does not take a genius to see a weak President and leading class intent only on green agenda that is directly hurting us now. Hold on to your seats folks, I think the world will spin outta control by the end of the year no matter who is in control…..
Blessings
Burden