It is 2-27-22 and we are almost 1 week into Russia attacking the Ukrainians. Most of the information coming out makes it look as if the Ukrainians are winning the battles. But, in reality we are finding out very little about what Russia is doing. Because of their vast strengths over the Ukrainians they have slowly encircled Kyiv and it appears that they have been trying to not destroy infrastructure in the major cities. Because the Ukrains are fighting with a toughness not anticipated, it is going slower than probably most of the main players in Russia would want. But, in reality the outcome will probably end up the same.
Now I have used percentages and numbers to forecast weather for decades. So I am used to this kind of statistical look at many of the things I am doing. Right now I see 4 different outcomes coming from this entire scenario. Each has a varying probability and have changed since this all started. So I am going to go through each potential outcome from the lowest percentage to the most likely being last.
Let’s give it a go, first off remember Putin does not need an off ramp like many commentators are saying. He does not think like we do here in America. Commentators are trying to force how we would react, into Putin. That’s not what he is thinking. He just sees the win and continuing to restore Russia to his vision of it’s past. So because he has no off ramp he is not looking for it. The quick ceasefire talks went as you would expect. A demand from Russia to Ukraine to give up and capitulate to Russia’s wants. Ukrainians asked for total recall of all Russian troops and a withdraw back to Russia. Honestly neither really expected anything, least wise Putin.
His Nuclear change was more of a defensive mode and a rattling of his sword to put a little fear in those he is after. It would be a last resort but he sees it as a tool to push fear into those he is attacking. This statement though leads me to my 1st outcome potential and the lowest of the 4 percentage wise. It’s the Nuclear war option. Yes there is always a small chance something crazy could happen, but still miniscule. I changed my mindset from 3-5% chance last week to an upward trend of 10% after this last weekends activities and words announced by Putin. Look how the mainstream media freaked out about his putting his nuclear forces on high alert. Yes, he seems a bit aloof with many of his statements but reality on the streets says he is jenning up to really pop the Ukraines hard and end this. And the Nuclear option did it’s damage as expected. It put the fear into many. Thus really eliminating the need for Nuclear war.
But and it’s a big but, the European Union got their act together after hearing about the Nuclear option. They started to finally hit them with some sanctions that work and to pass weapons to the people of Ukraine. Did they finally realize that a mad man running around taking other countries is opposite of what a New World Order should allow. Because, think about this, they were just sitting on the sidelines allowing it to happen until, and only until protests started popping up all over the globe. Then they reacted. Too late to stop it, but in enough time to look like they care. So I have to ask are they now really pushing Putin into a corner where he might see Nuclear as the last resort? I can not imagine him accepting any kind of defeat. Thus for these reasons I upped the percentage point on the Nuclear front. Not something to worry about but not at all a no go potential.
Alright that was potential outcome number 1 let’s head in to option number 2 and the 2nd least potential of the options. So percentage wise I am at 12% on this one and it has been falling throughout the weekend. This would probably be the best outcome for everyone; but still not likely. The 2nd least outcome percentage wise would be the withdrawal of all Russian troops and life going back to near normal. Ukraine and it’s people regaining their freedoms. This is not likely because Putin can literally win this with a far superior force that he has not truly unleashed yet. As I said before I can not see any reason since this has started that would truly make Putin stop. He has backing, money wise, and outcome wise from the world’s largest nation. No not us, China. They can cover for any money woes and probably want to take the U.S. dollar away as the main source of world money anyway. So win win for them with out having to do much at all. Sit on the sidelines and watch it all play out. This is were I go back to the supposed off ramp Putin is looking for. I believe our pundits are wrong on this front. He needs no off ramp, he needs to not worry what others think. You see tyrants do what tyrants do. They kill people in the streets to make a point. They lock people in jail without charges to show strength. Sound like anyone? Tyrants do what tyrants do. Bad men do bad things: no remorse or will to stop pressure from outside entities will stop them. This has been true since humans were put on this planet by God.
So lets just say he does pull his troops out. What then? Does he just say, My Bad, so sorry! No, people are already talking about tribunals for war crimes. Cluster bombs, targeting civilians, and hitting even a chemical weapons plant are on the list of potential charges. So if there was an off ramp so to speak it is closed due to road work. Road work that only leads to one outcome if they loose or retreat. That would be a life stuck in hiding, the world stage closed to him. This now narrows the chances of any Russian pull out.
I have been listening for days now as the drum beat continues to say he didn’t expect this. Hogwash, he may have hoped for it but he knew the Ukrainians had sufficient weapons in the form of Javelin tank killers, and Stinger air defense missiles to put up a fight for awhile and he knew those potential outcomes. In reality Instead I think our media didn’t expect this hard fought intense battle out of the Ukraines to save their country. They put outrageous deadlines on the war and where things should be at this point based on fast paced moves by past wars. Generals and anyone in the military for any time can tell you to plan for the worse and shoot for the best. This is probably closer to what they expected then the smart dudes and dudettes envisioned from their cushy chairs in the largesse studios of New York City or Washington.
While I want the Ukrainians to win this thing. The outcome looks more settled based on basic strategies from both sides. Now that the EU finally stepped up some 2-4 weeks late, Putin will be stuck with little else to do but fight to the finish killing as many as it takes to acquire Ukraine. If you have ever cornered an animal. If that animal thinks there is no way out, they will attack to free themselves. Putin is slowly becoming that cornered animal, and I am afraid this option of going back to normal is falling rapidly….
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