Climate Change from a different source.....
Someone who has seen the wars...Weather wise that is....
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Stay with this one. There is more than you think in it
As I sit here hoping for a thunderstorm cluster near us to drop some much needed rain on our parched land. I started thinking about how and why Climate Fanatics got this way. It’s not like this just started. I mean if you are 20 it may seem like this just started, and no one is taking it seriously like you Gen Z’ers are. But in reality people have been trying to make money off of the weather for a very, very long time. Us Gen X’ers have seen it many times just in our lifetimes. Not one person can point to a time they were right. So, if your young bear with us as we have seen it before and just might know a little about it.
No, no, these youngsters say. Our teachers have told us our whole lives, well, that you old folks are wrong. About almost everything. Mostly for sure though Climate change, slash Global Warming, or whatever they want to call it today. I chuckle when I think of the little chipmunk wheel racing in their minds. Should I take the cheese away? Even for a moment.
Enough of that now I’m going to start with just a few of the climate predictions we older folks have heard over the years.
“It is already too late to avoid mass starvation,” declared Denis Hayes, the chief, let me repeat that, the chief organizer for Earth Day, back in 1970.
How about this gem, it’s a bit long so hang in there with me “Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions…. By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.” that was from Peter Gunter, a North Texas State University professor, and was written in 1970
One last one for now, Kenneth Watt warned about a pending Ice Age in a speech. “The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years,” he declared. “If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”
Now you can say that they didn’t have the computers and the data we have now. I would agree. But then, why would wrong predictions continue on this path even up to today. For instance here is what we hear now, and this was taken from the Earth Day website in just the last few years. “Global sea levels are rising at an alarmingly fast rate — 6.7 inches in the last century alone and going higher. Surface temperatures are setting new heat records about each year. The ice sheets continue to decline, glaciers are retreating globally, and our oceans are more acidic than ever.” They go on to say “The majority of scientists are in agreement that human contributions to the greenhouse effect are the root cause. Essentially, gasses in the atmosphere – such as methane and CO2 – trap heat and block it from escaping our planet.
So what happens next? More droughts and heat waves, which can have devastating effects on the poorest countries and communities. Hurricanes will intensify and occur more frequently which I can tell you they have been proclaiming for 40 or more years. Also they say sea levels could rise up to four feet by 2100 – and that’s a conservative estimate among their experts.
I did find some wrong forecasts still left on the internet. Declared by reputable organizations like the New York Times, I’m aghast. They are of our future that well, can we say don't come true, but sounded spectacular anyway. Stay with me on this. I have plenty to show you and still this is only a drop of the vast amount out there.
Let's start only 55 years ago in 1967 as a prediction of Dire Famine was Forecast By the year 1975. In 1970 the first rumblings of an Ice Age By the year 2000 began to stir. More in 1971 of a New Ice Age Coming By 2020 or 2030. How about in 1974 when scientists say that Space Satellites Show A New Ice Age Coming Fast. You see where this is headed already don’t you. But I will go on. In 1976 we were told that the Scientific Consensus was of Planet Cooling, and Famines are imminent. Remember those words. Scientific consensus. Where have I heard those? Hmmm, maybe later it will come to me. In 1978 forecasters see No End in Sight to the 30-Year Cooling Trend. Hold on, let me grab my popcorn. This is getting interesting. Whoops, alert, alert, a plot twist is ahead. Yes, somewhere in the 1980s we started to see a shift to a different mindset. The year 1988 brought us the forecast of Regional Droughts in the 1990s.
Predictions in 1988 also said temperatures will soon hit record highs and the Maldive Islands will be underwater by 2018. Uh, last I checked, hold on a sec, yah the Maldives is still there. Man glad we dodged that bullet. Next up 1989 and the Rising Sea Levels that will Obliterate Nations if Nothing is Done by 2000 because of global warming. Guess we missed that boat and are doomed then. In 1989 the UN Warns That Entire Nations Wiped Off the Face of the Earth by 2000.
At this point the phenomena starts to pick up even more pace and it began to get worse in 2000 when we heard Children Won’t Know What Snow Is. Just 2 years later we were told to expect Famine In 10 Years If We Don’t Give Up Eating Fish, Meat, and Dairy. That one has swung around again lately by the Great Reset peeps. Now just to throw us off track a little, in 2004 it was predicted that Britain will Be like Siberia by the year 2024. Ok they have a little time left for that one to happen.
Are there more trends you are seeing here? Yes, well most of us do. But let’s go on. In 2008 we were told the Arctic will Be Ice Free by 2018. I quote from another headline. Climate Genius Al Gore Predicts Ice-Free Arctic by 2013. He was bold! Another Climate Genius in 2008 Prince Charles, Says we Have 96 Months to Save the World. In 2009 UK Prime Minister Said 50 Days to ‘Save The Planet From Catastrophe. Again in 2009 Climate Genius Al Gore Moves 2013 Prediction of Ice-Free Arctic to 2014. Later that year other world leaders penned stories of an Arctic Ice-Free by 2015. But alas it is still covered in ice. What are we to do, what are we to do?
Did you notice the change though? Generally in the late 1990s to early 2000s scientists gave way to politicians and elites who started getting into the mix. Oh, scientists backed them cause they know where the money is, but politicians had a horse they could run on. So, we started hearing and seeing headlines like these. Only 500 Days Before ‘Climate Chaos’. Watch out for Super Hurricanes! Manhattan Underwater by 2015! Fifty Million Climate Refugees by the Year 2020! They even said Snowfalls Are Now a Thing of the Past.
You know we were told as far back as 1975 that the Oceans would be Dead in a Decade, US Water Rationing by 1974, along with Food Rationing by 1980. Nearly everyday since and year after year there is sensationalizing of their agenda. Day after day we hear of new signs of the coming apocalypse because of Climate Change. Also we hear that this time they have it nailed down. That the models say that we are doomed.
Are we doomed? Well there is plenty out there that bucks the current media, politician, and elite montra. This would lend many to think that the science is not settled. Forecasts are just that. Currently you have seen and probably realize that we can trust 2 day forecasts to be about 90% accuracy. 3-4 days maybe we drop to about 75%. Even now 7-10 day forecasts are common to see but not reliable for anything. You can not count on them. After that time period you are just as good as throwing a spinning ax at a target of forecasts pinned on a wall. If you stand farther away it is harder to hit the center. If you are good you might hit the one in the middle which we call the average weather. But most of us miss that mark a lot and so do the models and especially the long range models. The farther from the beginning source you get the more the tendency is to be wrong.
I’m not just saying that, many meteorologists, atmospheric science professors, and climatologists will tell you the same thing. Those people no one talks about because they don't fit the narrative. Still though, long range models can not be counted on. I’m not even saying they might be wrong, generally speaking they will be wrong. Sometimes they will be right.
Now models are getting better as we are told everyday by news pogues. I agree. But the current algorithms being used are still not accurate. That is very apparent by actual numbers. Many have shown a much faster rate of rising temperatures than we are seeing. Many oceanographic models have shown rapid sea rises to go along with the rise in temperatures. So why are these models wrong? Well simply stated the algorithms are not strong enough and accurate enough. This probably is due to improper usage of the numbers to get the job done. As scientists learn more and more they should strengthen the forecasts on climatology. When that is, nobody is for sure. If you listen to the news they say you should listen to them now. They know what is good and accurate. But, if you are a betting man or woman don’t take the climate forecast for more than a 50-50 proposition at best.
If you are still hanging in with me I thought this is where I would tell you why and how I think I know these things. I didn’t want to sway your opinion of what I was saying at all. While I am a pastor I also have been a weather forecaster slash meteorologist for almost 40 years now. I have forecast weather for every continent, both poles, and much if not all of the oceans in my career. I even taught for a couple years. One of my highlights has been working for the United States Antarctic Program and getting to actually go to the South Pole. Definitely something I will remember for the rest of my life.
My colleagues and I have had many discussions over the decades on the global warming, climate saga. Plenty of great ideas have come from those get-togethers. I have learned a bit from the young guys and the older ones. Consensus is there really is no consensus. As you would expect the younger guys lean towards yes, and the old guys lean towards no. But most of us agree there is no foregone definite conclusion in any direction. So there you have it. I have been around the block a bit weather wise and do have situational awareness on the subject. Old military terms help sometimes.
Back to the world, what can all of us agree on? Well for one the climate is changing. It is always changing. It has changed since the moment God planted this big beautiful globe in this spot in space. But, for now no one can truly say where we are headed with this current warmer trend in time. The Earth has been in the past much warmer than we are now. Don’t let anyone tell you differently. I have heard the talking heads say things like this is an unprecedented warming in human history. We have never been hotter. But those numbers headline grabbers are not true. Many times in world history our planet as a whole has been warmer than it is now. Much warmer.
When I started looking even further into this I looked for charts to see how warm we truly have been. Low and behold if you type in a google search for temperatures in history you are inundated with charts only beginning at 1900. 1900 doesn't seem logical. But, I was not stopped by pouring rain, or lightning, or snow or the dead of night. Oh, is that the Postal service quote? Sorry I get side tracked occasionally, back to the numbers. Quickly I would find something farther back in time and I was amazed that wikipedia and climate.gov did have charts close to what I remembered from teachings years ago. Hopefully I will have these charts for you on my youtube podcast. The history of the planet is actually much warmer than now. What we know currently is that Earth’s history at this moment is unusually cold. We now live in what geologists call an interglacial period between glaciations of an ice age. Sounds like word salad and it might be. But, many of us can’t remember yesterday or last week or long ago. So how are we to know that the planet has been much warmer, and what does it mean? Well unfortunately the news and social media now tells you a story, a narrative of what they want you to believe. Plenty of people only know these places, and have no real knowledge of what is going on other than what they are being told. That is why I say do your due diligence and check out for yourself what I or any other blow heart is saying. I don’t have an agenda. No one is paying me either direction so I tell you what I think.
Back to the actual history. As you can see with just a little checking you can find actual charts that no one will show you. Instead you get, and see those charts that start in 1900 that show we are burning up and getting worse. They might even cut out small years to guide the narrative and not tell you that it is not the norm or average. Reality is different. Seas are not inundating our coastlines and drawing people far inland. People are not dying from more heat due to higher temperatures. If you look closer you will find the ignored information. Like the one that says people can now live farther North and plant more crops than in the past due to a better climate. Yah, how many times has the news called it better? Probably never is my guess. How about the fact that more people die due to cold, than due to heat. Doesn’t fit the narrative, let’s move on they say.
More fun untold facts. Tornadoes. You say what Bryan do tornadoes have to do with this subject? Well did you know that tornado numbers and severity have actually been on the decrease in the United States for the last 65 years. And very dramatically in the last 20 years. Why haven't you heard this you might be asking yourself. But really, why would they tell you? You are supposed to think that the world is in chaos constantly. Yet claims that global warming is causing more tornadoes, which I have heard in many places, is directly opposite to the clear observed evidence.
Researching this podcast I found a former NASA scientist and Climatologist named Dr. Roy Spencer. He has done some extensive articles on our current climatology. Lotsa charts and graphs to amaze a weather geek. Now he looked at the temperature since 2000. He showed the data which showed a .6 degree celsius trend upwards since then. Now he also highlighted the El Nino years of 2015-17. El Nino is an anomaly in sea surface temperatures which can indicate some types of weather. In 2015-17 the temperature globally jumped 2-2.5 degrees celsius. Now as you would imagine the pundits ran with this information. Telling us we were all dying even faster. But looking at just the last 20 years tells us very little. And only 3 years even less. Take out that anomaly for those 20 years and we are literally at the norm. Although you could take out a couple La Nina years which generally show cooler temperatures, and it might jump even higher. So small snippets don’t work in the big scheme of things.
Hurricanes. We are seeing fewer hurricanes. But Bryan, they are saying they are increasing and getting bigger, not decreasing. Again just a few keystrokes and you quickly find information from climatic data centers that say differently. One of the things you notice about hurricanes is the large variability in their occurrence from year-to-year and decade-to-decade. Not only do hurricanes vary, but so too does the proportion that makes landfall. So, looking at a few years you can pluck what you need from the data if you have an agenda. Let’s look at as much as we can through history. Good records go back to the 40s and 50s in the Atlantic and Pacific. What you see is a downward trend. Peaks of the amount of hurricanes occurred in the 50s and 60s. There was a quieter period in the 1970s. But the data is pretty clear that a higher trend was seen in the 1980s and 90s. Since 2000 that trend has decreased to at or below the history trend. Yes, you can cherry pick a couple years and say look we are still up. Many have done this, but the problematic curve goes down in this aspect. At least for now anyway.
As a side note I noticed a few graphs going back into the 1800s. They all showed a weird uptick in hurricanes starting after WW2. Hmmm, I will throw this out there sarcastically. Not only did we have more aircraft and ships in our world at that time. We also got a noticeable plus in acquiring Satellite capabilities in the 60s. Thus we were able to see more in general. One might say since then we have more in real data and a way to get it to the masses in real time.
Alrighty then, that leads me to my most annoying problem in this cabal of all cabals. The media’s role in this adventure. I have worked in that industry on air, but it was some 20 years ago. Back then climate and or global change was not as big a thing as it is now. I think most people thought we had an ice age ahead of us after hearing it in the 70s and 80s. We never pushed any kind of agenda that I can remember. But the business is still the same. Big stories and big events sell advertising and keep people coming back to the station. Each event is either the greatest thing since sliced bread or the end of the world. Literally. Once you add in the politicians getting involved, then there was no turning back. Money has been had, and will be had by these people and more for many years to come.
Scientists are also to blame a bit. You do not get another grant if you bring back data saying that everything is hunky dory, do you. So a little fudge here or there won’t hurt anyone they say to themselves. I say Hockey Stick graph anyone. Look it up if you don’t know what that means. Just like the media, an over glamatorizing of events keeps the train rolling. At this point no one can tell what is right or wrong. Real numbers if there are any left are shown to be wrong all the time depending which side you might be on any given day of the week. People day after day take a year or two out of any data and try to make a point stick. Is it any wonder what it might lead to?
Just look at the current information I have heard pushed this week. One said 85% of the country is in an uncontrolled heatwave. Oh the horror, it’s summer. Not only that. The peak of summer, the average hottest day of the year, is roughly July 28th. It can vary a little here and there. But you get the point. It is Hot out. What I didn’t hear much of was actual, by the numbers record breaking heat. See they keep using words like extreme, deadly, or any number of ideas to make it look bad. That’s the hook. You bit, you watched, they got likes. Meanwhile reality, I like that word reality. Reality says that the vast majority of the Eastern half of the U.S. has seen below normal temperatures up to this point this summer. Not on your news feed. Hmmm, I wonder why. That is part of the grift. Quick weather lesson. Generally about half to two thirds of the nation is in one type of weather pattern. While half to one third is in a different type pattern. That means they can call it dry or rainy one day and cold or hot the next about anywhere in our country almost any day. Nice isn’t it.
More of the grift. You have heard many times about wildfires. How they are the biggest and worst and unprecedented. Another click word, unprecedented. But are these fires unprecedented? Just about everyone of these fires is normal for those regions. You and I have heard so many times about the wildfires out west. You would think most people would figure out that that is a yearly happening out West. It is normal, and natural to have fires. Humans have just encroached into all of those areas by now, and we don’t like it when our stuff burns up. It is called normal to scientists who are truthful.
We can also play this game with hurricanes. The headline reads, Untold destruction and damage by this latest hurricane. Well yeah, you built on the east coast of America. Hurricanes there are a thing. You are going to get your house smacked if you stay there long enough. How about this one, Flooding in the midwest wrecks havoc and destruction in its wake. Yes, to cities who have built next to the river or on flood plains. But Bryan it was a one hundred year flood plain and it last flooded in 1950, how do you account for that? Do I even need to say how dumb that question is. Ok I will. You built on a flood plain you lovely child of God! Here is the final word on this subject. Do not complain when you lose your house to a fire, or hurricane, or flooding when you build in what I would assume is a beautiful place. We all take risks and can make decisions for ourselves. Or must we be led around by the hand to each check station to get another token? Don’t answer that.
Before I end, I would like to toss out an idea on why we might be warming. Since it is currently the hot topic. Sorry for the corny joke but this has been a long diatribe. This is just one of an enormous amount of chatter from both sides of the issue. But first for me is a piggyback off of the theory on the Urban Heat Island effect. This is where cities stay hotter than the surrounding area due to everything in them. Another quick weather lesson brought to you by your host. Our atmosphere warms by ground heating. So if the ground is warm the air is also. Just laying the foundation. Alrighty then, it was told to me or maybe I read it a long time ago. Not sure which, but anyways it goes like this, The City of Palm Springs California had been growing since the 1940s when it was very small. By the 80s urban sprawl had added miles and miles of cement, and asphalt to the area in turn raising the temperature anywhere from 5-8 degrees. It sure seems logical that adding so much change led to higher temperatures overall. This phenomena can be attributed to many places that have jumped up out of small beginnings.
Larger cities themselves are famous as being heat islands. Almost every city in the nation in the summer has a warm city temperature and a cooler suburb temperature. In addition, there has been an increase in world population doubling from 4 to 8 billion people since 1975. Most of this increase is in our cities, in turn enlarging most of them. You think just maybe. Just maybe we have added to the rise of temperature just in city growth and urban sprawl alone. This simple theory is not written in stone but is just added to the pile building up slowly which might debunk global warming theories. But, on the other hand I can also get on board with many theories that go with and show potential for increased warming. Plenty of folks can argue that warming, if it happens, will be good for us all. While I personally hate warm weather. I am in the, I can see how it can help us camp. Yes, warmer temperatures do generally lead to plentiful harvests and abundant life everywhere it occurs. Just like in the garden of eden.
Personally I am amazed by the grandiose extreme impacts one can come up with to make the global weather situation look even worse. Or to make it better if you wish. We have heard so many scare tactics from the polar ice cap melting, to the ozone layer gone at the South Pole, that so many people have just become skeptical through the years. As you get older that does tend to hold true. You see, what actually happens, makes and shapes your ideals based on those happenings. So far, the weather's terrifying end to humanity never seems to pan out or live up to the hype. So, the older and longer you see that, the more you won’t believe the extreme headlines. Most of our younger folks have heard only one side of a story thus it becomes gospel to them. Just like us X-gener’s and Boomers, some will change and some will stay the same as they age.
While I rant and rave about many things. I can see a world with electricity run by solar and wind. Just not yet. I can also see a greener society. One with more trees, the lifeblood of oxygen we breathe. One with cleaner oceans. One with less crime, and more love in it. But I also can see some rough times ahead for us all. I want you to get prepared a bit. I’m not talking like a prepper. Unless you want that. Then have at it. I just want you to make sure you take care of yourself and your family. Then friends and your neighbors. Get your bills in order. Money is truly the root of all evil but unfortunately a necessity in most instances. What I do not want is money to become the anchor that makes you drown. So kill the bills. Next, maybe buy an extra can of food occasionally if you can afford it. Store it away for a rainy day, or just in case a bank closes or you know, a depression hits. Please prepare for the future as if today is the best you might see for a while.
Spiritually, what are you waiting on? Now is the time to strengthen your walk with Jesus. If you do not know Jesus I encourage you to open yourself up to the fulfilling words of our loving savior. Do not worry, and fall on the love of God to sustain you. If you, as many of us do, are struggling with how the world turns. Then you will find a place of quiet and comfort in Jesus.
Finding God is where you can never worry. Where you realize your needs will be quenched. Where you realize your unique purpose can be fulfilled. If you repent of your sins and believe with your whole heart that he is our Lord and Savior. Then he will give you strength when you need it. He will give you solace in knowing that you are loved. My friends, put your faith in Jesus, the great I AM, the only TRUTH, THE ONLY TRUTH, that will carry you through the troubles we endure!
See you next time….