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The China vs USA war was purposefully left off my list of predictions this year. Many factors come into play for such a complicated region. Not only close United States partners surround that part of the Asian continent but also strategic ports, shipping lanes, and one third of the world’s population stretches across from India to China itself. All, just like us here in the United States, are hoping for cooler heads to prevail in the Taiwan China dust up.
I do believe the potential for China to strike Taiwan and take it though, is very high this year. In the last three years they have told the world in some of the strongest terms possible that Taiwan in their beliefs is their’s and that they intend to get it back into the Chinese flow of life.
Reasons for this go back 75 years. Taiwan had been under Japanese rule until the end of WW2 in which it then went back to the People's Republic Of China. But with the civil war between Chinese groups coming to a bloody end in 1949 Taiwan became the landing spot for Chiang Kai-Sheck and his Republic of China leaders. Some 2 million elites, soldiers, and treasures of the China dynasty were taken to Taipei to set up a government. That started the process of where we are today.
Mainland China wants what they believe to be theirs back into the fold and have been open and voicetress about it. President Xi has built up his military might in anticipation of the coming conflict and seems ready at any moment to strike if he believes diplomatic avenues will not work.
That brings me to our participation in a war that really has nothing to do with us other than our word that we will help Taiwan if they need us. Fake platitudes about saving a democracy were great when China could not strike Taipei or Taiwan itself, but now the scenario has changed. President Biden has said several times that we will engae if Taiwan is attacked. Great saber rattling, but are we really going to get into this theater of war if it happens?
NO, is my thought process and I am sure many of you can see the common sense factors keeping us from doing anything at all.
President Biden is seen as weak. That can be a plus but it would be a hard sell for most people to actually believe a weak President can help. Generally weakness is thought to be and as we have seen across the globe, it is seen as free reign to take, pillage, and plunder one's adversaries without worries. We yell a bit, and send money but we won’t use the Big Stick we earned for so many years for fears of devastating outcomes. Not only do the leaders of the world see this, but that includes adversaries who see this as an opportunity.
Unfortunately I can also see a weak President who is trying to appear strong, getting us into places and wars we don’t want to be in. Case in point would be the world foreign policy that is causing mayhem everywhere today. This ratchets up the potential for China to strike and take Taiwan. Xi sees the potential for something to happen before a much stronger leader takes over for the United States.
That takes me back to not helping Taiwan. Firstly the current time and space we occupy as a world leader is as unstable as it may have ever been. We are slowly getting out of the knee deep money grabbing lost cause quagmire that is Ukraine. Yes, many people want to help people there and still see Russia as this big boogie-man. Maybe Putin is, but the actual people of Ukraine and Russia who have given up too many of their sons and daughters for this battle are not.
Meanwhile we are diving headlong into the Middle East war. Tensions already high this past year skyrocketed in October after the bloody savage attacks by Hamas on the Israeli people. From that point till now a slow steady increase of attacks on America by Iran backed Houthis, and factions in Iraq and Syria are reported every day. We finally started striking the Houthis in the last few weeks which seems to have slowed their persistent strikes on shipping in the area.
Yet, the attacks by Iran backed militia are not ceasing. Nearing 200 now, as their persistence Killed 3 of our soldiers this week. I pause to think about what it takes for us to smack the nat or do we just keep letting them strike with little to no bite back. Why?
Because that is exactly what Israel is doing now. They tried to appease and simmer the atmosphere in hopes of a peaceful solution. But as bad people do, they do not want real peace. They want power, land, and money. Hamas kept biting until finally Israel brought out the Raid, fly swatter, and bug zappers to eradicate the problem from the Gaza strip. I for one, hope and pray that we can get the people of Gaza into a somewhat sense of a normal life once that is all over.
Now we too have hit an inflection point. But this inflection has a big old Queen bug ruling the little nats. Questions arise: do you eradicate the nats? Do you strike the Queen? Or do you do nothing in hopes that you can appease the Queen as the Queen gets bigger and stronger?
I myself would love for us to just get out and let the people of the region fight their own battles. Unfortunately just as in Asia we apparently have promises to keep. It seems like some we can't break. Plus you know, the flow of oil can’t be disrupted. Oh wait, I thought we hated big oil.
Fighting China itself I believe is a no go zone. The catastrophic economic collapse of the world's money truly hangs on what is produced in China. Just to name one crushing blow to the world would be that China produces 90% of America’s drugs. Not the illegal drugs we so want off our streets. No that arthritis pill you take, or that pill that keeps you upright instead of in bed every day. We have no back up for just that one thing that might be affected during a war vis vi Taiwan-China-USA.
People in the United States would be shocked at how much they think they need comes straight out of the CCP. Parts for cars, medicine, every day needs, the list goes on and on. The United States would have to think long and hard about what it means to the entire globe if you try to take on a powerful China not only militarily but economically.
World depression, economic tragedy, famine, deaths probably in the billions. All probable outcomes with a war with China. I didn’t even talk about the potential for nuclear conflict. While minimal it is something that a leader might do if they were in a tough place.
Xi also knows that we see the outcome of total collapse too. If I was a betting man he believes we will not take that gamble. We will scream till our lungs collapse but will not put billions of people in harm's way. That means BAD people will do bad things and take Taiwan either through back channel deals or through war. Something I pray for the people of the world, that we sit out.
I want to think that, sure the US helps and nothing goes wrong. But the reality is that the USA and China know that fighting against China is a world killer. It won't matter if we are occupied in wars in the Middle East or Ukraine or nothing. Any of those scenarios is catastrophic to our world. China could strike while America sits it out. Because other than total capitulation by Taiwan the entire world goes up in flames if we engage. It is sobering to think that the best course of action may be to not help, because helping would kill and harm so many more.
As the world spins into chaos I think it’s time for you to find a savior you can lean on. As the world seems to crumble, Jesus will forgive your past transgressions while uplifting you to a whole new you walking with him. Take that next step and find Jesus…..